China’s bank lending in August greater than doubled from your previous month, but analysts said a great deal of the gain was on account of strong mortgage demand, contributing to evidence that Chinese companies are increasingly unwilling to make new investments.
The figures, together with other data this week, paint a photograph of any economy that may be improving slowly but increasingly reliant on a housing boom and government spending for growth.
Chinese banks extended 948.7 billion yuan ($142.23 billion) in 房貸 in August, well above expectations, while broad M2 money supply (M2) also grew by way of a more-than-expected 11.4 percent from your year earlier, in accordance with central bank data on Wednesday.
New bank lending rebounded sharply from July’s 463.6 billion yuan, that was the best in just two years, while M2 quickened from July’s 10.2 percent rise, which had been the weakest in 15 months.
The central bank has pledged to keep policy slightly loose, but sources say it is actually unwilling to cut rates of interest or bank reserves again inside the near term amid evidence that companies and banks are hoarding cash rather than investing it.
“A renewed pick-up in credit growth last month will add to the growing sense among investors how the near-term outlook for China’s economy is fairly bright,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics.
“Credit growth continues to be likely to slow over coming months as being the PBOC refrains from further easing and focuses much more about credit risks. But with recent activity data also strengthening, we expect economic growth to bolster on the remainder of year.”
Data on Tuesday showed China’s factory output and retail sales also grew faster than expected in August being a strong housing marketplace as well as a government infrastructure spending spree underpinned growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
But August readings also highlighted imbalances inside the economy, with private investment growth at record lows and exports still sluggish.
China’s increasingly reliance upon your property market is yet another major concern, as more cities impose restrictions on home purchases in the face of sharply rising house prices, threatening to terminate a near one-year rally.
A sharp price correction would increase strains on banks which can be already wrestling with growing amounts of bad loans.
Household loans, mostly mortgages, accounted for 71 percent of total new bank loans in August, though they were down from greater than 90 % in July, data showed.
“Home loans remain the most important driver of loan growth, depending on booming housing market and weak loan demand from corporates,” David Qu and Raymond Yeung at ANZ said in a note.
Outstanding yuan loans grew at 13 percent by month-end with an annual basis.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new lending of 750 billion yuan, with outstanding loans seen rising 12.9 percent, and cash supply seen up 10.4 percent.
Total social financing (TSF), a large measure of credit and liquidity inside the economy, jumped to 1.47 trillion yuan in August from 487.9 billion yuan in July.
TSF includes off-balance sheet kinds of financing which exist outside of the conventional bank lending system, for example initial public offers, 房屋貸款 from trust companies and bond sales.
M1 money supply, which includes cash and short-term deposits, rose 25.3 percent in August from a year earlier. The widening gap between M1 and M2 growth has fueled concerns with regards to a “liquidity trap” in dexrpky35 economy where companies remain cautious about investing regardless how much stimulus money policymakers pump to the system.
“The rapid expansion of M1 money supply indicates corporates’ preference of holding cash rather than investment. This is certainly consistent together with the slowing trend in fixed asset investment from the private sector,” ANZ said.
Chester Liaw, an economist at Forecast Pte Ltd in Singapore, said the spread between M1 and M2 growth narrowed to 13.9 percentage points from 15.2 recently but “remains at elevated levels.”
The PBOC is shooting for annual M2 development of around 13 percent this coming year, pointing to continued accommodative policy as Beijing pledges to set about painful economic restructuring involving state-owned enterprises in key industrial sectors.
Policy insiders have said that evidence companies and banks are hoarding cash, alongside concerns about property market and the yuan’s stability, has reinforced policymakers’ view there is not any major benefit in easing policy further.